Climate change positions a huge obstacle for wind energy production inEurope This is the conclusion of a research study performed by scientists of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (PACKAGE) utilizing spatially and temporally extremely solved climate designs. The suggest wind power production of the whole European continent will just a little change by the end of the 21 st century. However, more powerful seasonal variations and a more regular event of low wind stages are anticipated. The scientists released their research study in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
Electricity from eco-friendly sources currently contributes a significant share to the European energy supply. In the course of the energy shift, the share of regenerative sources in the German energy mix will be even more increased. Wind power has actually shown to be an appealing renewable resource source. Still, because wind power production is highly affected by the dominating weather condition and climate conditions, it goes through both short-term variations and climate change. Scientists of the “Regional Climate and Weather Hazards” group of PACKAGE’s Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research– Troposphere Research Division (IMK-TRO), together with scientists of the University of Cologne, evaluated local climate forecasts to study future modifications of wind speeds and wind energy capacities in Europe till completion of this century. The outcomes are now released in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
For their research study, the scientists utilized a design ensemble of high spatial and temporal resolution, which is based upon simulations of the European climate modeling job EURO-CORDEX (CoordinatedRegional Climate Downscaling Experiment– European Domain). CORDEX is the local contribution to the IPCC (IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change). The spatial resolution is twelve kilometers, and the temporal resolution is 3 hours. This enables a more exact metrology of wind power production on the local scale. For the estimations, a common wind power plant with a center height of 100 m is presumed.
The analysis exposes that just little variations of mean wind power production are to be anticipated at the continental scale for Europe by the end of the 21 st century. These variations must stay within the series of plus/minus 5%. “For some nations, nevertheless, much greater modifications in the series of plus/minus 20% can be anticipated” states Professor Joaquim G. Pinto, who leads the “Regional Climate and Weather Hazards” group at IMK-TRO. “Moreover, these changes may be subject to strong seasonal fluctuations.”
According to the research study, an increased irregularity of wind power production on various time scales needs to be anticipated for big parts of northern, main, and eastern Europe, from day-to-day to yearly time scales. Wind speeds optimum for power production are anticipated to take place rather less often over the sea locations. At the very same time, more regular low wind stages with wind speeds listed below 3 m per second are anticipated over continentalEurope This will even more increase the volatility of wind power production.
According to the forecasts, climate change will impact wind power production in different locations in various methods. “In the Baltics and the Aegean, wind power production might profit from climate change,” states Julia Mömken, who belongs to the “Regional Climate and Weather Hazards” group of IMK-TRO. “By contrast, negative impacts are expected for Germany, France, and the Iberian Peninsula.” The predicted modifications suggest huge obstacles for wind power production inEurope However, suitable countermeasures, such as an extended usage of decentralized wind energy production and a more comprehensive and reputable European power circulation grid may lower the effects of climate change on wind power production.
Source: KarlsruheInstitute of Technology (PACKAGE)